The Pew Internet Project has released its second report on The Future of the Internet.  The report, issued on September 24, 2006 from Pew in Washington, D.C. is a survey of Internet leaders, activists and analysts.  The experts and analysts assess the future of the Internet and make educated predictions.   Although the report was emailed to me several days ago, I am still evaluating all its implications.  A majority of those surveyed agree that by 2020:  

• A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a "flattening" world.

• Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and "smart agents" proliferate.  However, a significant 42% of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans' ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.

• Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.

• Tech "refuseniks" will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.

• People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.

• English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence.

Each of these findings underscore the complexities the Internet presents in a global society.  Cyberspace is a universe of contrasts.  The first finding, for example, is that a low-cost global network will "flatten" the world.  Conceptually, this sounds simple.  The Internet could create a more level playing field, eliminating many differences & boundaries (i.e. – gender, demographic, heirarchical, etc.) 

The counter-argument, however, is equally compelling.  The 'world is flat' concept (from the best-selling book by New York Times, foreign-affairs columnist, Thomas L. Friedman) is hotly debated and constantly argued both in the press and in the research literature.  The counter perspective is that the social inequalities that make up the digital divide may be widening.

Some of the most provocative disputes were about futuristic scenarios and as stated above, it was surprising that a significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to "stay in charge of" technology.  More on this in future posts………